A Middle East political analyst writes in the Jerusalem Post that the Islamic Republic is moving weapons depots away from city centers to avoid a repeat of the 1979 revolution, recalling Akbar Rafsanjani’s warning: “We will not repeat the shah’s mistake.” The analyst argues the regime does not fear the U.S. or Israel — its real nightmare is a nationwide uprising by the Iranian people.
The writer says the regime has been brought to its knees and no longer has the power to control an enraged society. It has made urban metro systems free to prevent people from taking to the streets over gasoline prices — a society waiting for a spark. He warns that if civilians gain access to weapons, Iran could enter a civil war, as pro-regime religious forces would transform into underground terrorist cells operating from mosques.
On the political front, the analyst points to Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s invitation to Reza Pahlavi to visit Canada as a sign that the world is beginning to think seriously about alternatives to the regime. He describes Pahlavi as “the only game in town” among Iranian opposition figures and predicts major countries will eventually come knocking on his door seeking to become economic partners in Iran’s future.
The writer also sharply criticizes U.S. policy, saying the CIA still lacks understanding of the destructive mindset of Shia clerics and has not “read the mullah’s playbook.” He writes that the cancerous tumor of the Iranian regime requires chemotherapy and surgery — not a baby aspirin.
